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Varun GS



Articles by Varun GS

Bitcoin to Surpass $98K by November: Stock to Flow Model

June 20, 2021

The S2F model is currently suggesting that, in the worst-case scenario, BTC will surpass $98K by November, which is highly optimistic given recent market developments.
S2F’s Methodology & Accuracy
Comparing Bitcoin to precious metals like gold and silver, PlanB has used statistics to outline a defined relationship between the value and scarcity of a given asset. The basic hypothesis is that the easier it is to produce a good, the harder it is for it to retain value, assuming demand remains stable.
PlanB notes that demand will be driven by predatory governments imposing negative interest rates, billionaires hedging against inflation, and institutional investors. This information, pieced together with the power laws and fractals observation that BTC’s price often centers

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Bitcoin Death Cross 2021 Is Here: The Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Be Worried

June 19, 2021

The Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 crashes were both preceded by a death cross and signified that the tides in the market are about to shift in a big way.
Why Does a Death Cross Work?
The death cross indicator has been reliable in both the stock and crypto markets – it predicted 4 major crypto crashes, as well as the 1974 and 2008 stock market collapses. When a bull market ends, short-term momentum (indicated by the 50-day moving average line, or 50MA) starts to slow down.
The Death Cross describes a cross between the MA-50 and MA-200, whereas the shorter one, the 50-day, crosses below the 200-day.
BTC/USD death cross of June 2021. Source: TradingView
Long-term moving averages are able to provide a robust trend – a line of best fit, so to speak, creating an idea of baseline demand.

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Huobi Reportedly Slashes Maximum Leverage Following China Regulatory Crackdown

June 16, 2021

Huobi, one of China’s most popular Bitcoin exchanges, has reportedly slashed their maximum leverage allowance from 125x to less than 5x for existing users on the back of China’s regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrencies. New users signing up to the platform will not be able to use leverage at all.

Exclusive: Due to concerns about regulatory policies, China’s largest exchange Huobi recently restricted the leverage of existing users to less than 5x after stopping new users in China from using derivatives. The previous maximum was 125x pic.twitter.com/B5MWVJYGzK
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 16, 2021

Leverage and its Effects
Leverage allows traders to borrow huge sums of money and add them onto a position, which can increase profits. However, a slight move against

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Flash Loans Strike: Belt Finance Exploited for $6.2 Million

May 30, 2021

The hacker managed to steal $6.2 million worth of BUSD, the Binance native USD-pegged stablecoin converted to ETH via 1inch DEX and partially withdrawn from Binance Smart Chain onto Ethereum.
This hack was comparatively benign: only $6.2 million was stolen from Belt Finance’s massive $2.6 billion total value locked (TVL).
The beltBUSD vault uses four strategies. A bug in the Elipsis strategy was used to leak out funds via the Venus strategy.
The vault sends new deposits to the most undersubscribed strategy and pays out withdrawals from the most oversubscribed strategy to create balance between the four of them. The Elipsis strategy bug creates a value miscalculation if the 3EPS pool becomes unbalanced.
Using flash loans, the hacker swapped about $200 million from BUSD to

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Trustless XMR-BTC Swaps Launch on Monero’s Mainnet

May 30, 2021

This allows users to create trustless atomic swaps between the two cryptocurrencies without having to route through a centralized exchange service.
Monero’s Privacy Mechanisms
Monero’s ring signature system draws anonymity from a minimum ring size. Receivers are protected via stealth addresses, and funds within the ring are indistinguishable from each other. The minimum ring size is 11: given no other information, an attacker can identify the source of a transaction with a 1/11 confidence level unless a larger ring size is used.
Although Monero transactions are far more private than Bitcoin (the latter having no native transaction cloaking system), it’s not foolproof.
The chances of being traced can be reduced exponentially by creating ‘churn’ transactions, i.e., moving

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Volatility Incoming: Bitcoins On Derivatives Exchanges At Its Highest Since May 19

May 29, 2021

Bitcoins on derivatives exchanges are at their highest level since May 19, signaling a volatile weekend ahead.
Historically, derivatives exchanges like Binance Futures, BitFinex, and BitMEX are able to create massive price movements (a single entity or group of entities can create huge swings using a relatively low number of coins) thanks to the provision of massive amounts of leverage. These exchanges allow margin trading of even over 100X leverage.
Bitcoin had already seen much volatility over the past 24 hours, following a price decrease of 6% recording a 5-day low beneath $34K, as of writing these lines.
Market manipulation is still rampant in the cryptocurrency market, both at the exchange level and the sphere of public awareness, as famous figures in the

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4 Signals That the Bitcoin Crash Might Soon Reach a Local Bottom

May 23, 2021

A bullish case isn’t on many people’s minds – but signs are cropping up that Bitcoin may indeed be headed for a trend reversal. Here are some signs explaining why BTC might be overdue for a renewed uptick.
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of almost $65K on April 14, 2021, a little over a month ago. However, over the past 10 days the price violently broke down from the $50K mark and even reached $30K last Wednesday.
Bearish sentiment affected the whole crypto market, as altcoins suffered even more: ETH, which saw its all-time high of $4400 just 11 days ago, dropped below $1800 earlier today, before a slight correction as of writing these lines.
Where is the bottom for this ongoing crypto bloodbath? No one knows, but it might be worth keeping an eye on the following

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$1.2 Billion Liquidated As Bitcoin Sees 15% Price Collapse In 24 Hours

May 23, 2021

Bitcoin chopped downwards today towards $31K, looking to retest local lows made earlier in the week just around the $30K mark, according to Bitstamp.
According to data from Bybt, over the past 12 hours the crypto markets saw liquidations of over $1.2 Billion in trader positions. As of writing these lines, BTC price is decreasing 15% over the past 24 hours, whereas major altcoins were hit even harder, with ETH down 21% to a current daily low of $1730, XRP down 24% to $0.65 – daily low, and LTC down 28% to a daily low of $120, in the same timeframe.
BTC/USD over the past year. Chart by TradingView
So far today, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped from $1.6 Trillion to $1.23T – a staggering loss of over $400 Billion in total value.
Traders across CT flip

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Colonial Pipeline Hackers Received $90M Worth of BTC in Ransom Payments

May 20, 2021

Elliptic (a British blockchain security & analytics company) successfully traced DarkSide’s primary Bitcoin address, which contained over $90M in payments from 47 different victims.
Ransomware As a Service – a Twisted Model
DarkSide designs, creates and markets ransomware software to be sold to other cybercriminals who are able to locate the best targets. This type of software has the ability to lock down an entire system, making files and features on it inaccessible until BTC is paid to unlock it.
Instead of having to find all the targets themselves, DarkSide can outsource this to criminal ‘affiliates’ who are able to target vulnerable systems.
These affiliates can be insiders to a company with elevated access that DarkSide themselves may not have and are thus rewarded

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US Investors Will Have to Report Cryptocurrency Transactions Over $10K to the IRS

May 20, 2021

All transactions above $10,000 now have to be reported to the IRS for documentation and taxation purposes. This comes right after a major market-wide correction which saw the price of bitcoin tumbling down to $30K.
IRS Doubles Down
The IRS will be expanded with an $80B package aiming to increase their manpower and resources. Individuals and businesses dealing in cryptocurrency will be subject to a higher level of scrutiny, given that the Treasury believes cryptocurrency transactions, in particular, to be harder to trace and tax.
Treasury officials think that this plan will (conservatively) generate $700B within the next decade, arguing that weak enforcement of tax rules disproportionately benefits wealthier tax evaders since they have more sophisticated tools at their

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Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Peter Schiff, and Others: Community Reacts to Bitcoin’s Bloodbath

May 19, 2021

This collapse, catalyzed by Elon Musk’s tweets criticizing Bitcoin’s energy consumption, was exacerbated by several factors, including China, reiterating its anti-Bitcoin stance, a large short position on Bitfinex, and the necessity of a general correction in the overbought crypto space.
Crypto-related hashtags are trending across the world, including #crypto, #buythedip, and #altseason2021.
Bears Attack
Bitcoin skeptics and critics felt vindicated today as BTC temporarily plunged under $30K. Peter Schiff, a long-term Bitcoin antagonist, declared that today’s event settles the debate, proving that Bitcoin is not a safe haven nor a hedge against inflation – it’s merely a speculative asset that follows other high-risk assets (as it tanked alongside stocks).

Today should

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Bought The Dip: Justin Sun Buys $150 Million Worth of Bitcoin

May 19, 2021

Justin Sun, the founder of TRON, just announced that he purchased over $150 million worth of bitcoins at an average price of about $36,800.
In what some are calling ‘the greatest wealth transfer of the year,’ Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market at large plummeted over 50% before rebounding over 25% within hours.
Amidst a slew of liquidations, several high-profile cryptocurrency advocates like Michael Saylor spoke out, reaffirming their bullish thesis, unexpectedly including Elon Musk.
Justin Sun was amongst these people, announcing a monster $150M Bitcoin buy.

I have bought 4145 #Bitcoin with $152,818,183 at average price $36,868.
— Justin Sun (@justinsuntron) May 19, 2021

Sun is no stranger to decentralized technology – as the CEO of BitTorrent and TRON, he has seen

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Polkadot’s Parachain Launch Phase Begins

May 18, 2021

After the first successful parachain on Kusama is demonstrated, Polkadot will transition towards a complete main net launch, allowing for Wood’s dream of a scalable multichain platform to be completed.
Testing Methodology
The creation of parachains will be groundbreaking, but their viability must be tested thoroughly before deployment. Parachains are fine-tuned chains for specific purposes, and they benefit from a central security model (the Relay Chain), which protects them collectively from malicious vectors (such as a 51% attack).
An initial Shell parachain (an empty chain with no blocks) will be deployed to Kusama to test its basic functionality, mainly the upgrade mechanism via decentralized governance. Via this system, Shell will be voted into Statemine (a

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PancakeSwap Lottery Hack: $1.8 Million in Question

May 14, 2021

The Binance Smart Chain continues to see some of the projects being built on it exploited. The latest was done by someone who had access to the PancakeSwap admin address.
The Exploit
It’s an age-old problem with smart contracts: randomness. Solidity has no native random function, and all sources of randomness have to be on-chain. Projects use things like block headers, transaction hashes, and more to create legitimate sources of randomness, but none are truly random – they are merely pseudorandom.
This issue has led to exploits in the past, such as the recent Meebits exploit. The PancakeSwap lottery numbers were generated based on certain predictable conditions. The exploiter could use this information to predict the numbers in advance, thus draining the entire pool.
Who

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Square Has No Plans to Buy More Bitcoin, Says CFO

May 14, 2021

This comes on the back of a large Bitcoin dip following the most recent news that came from Tesla and its decision to halt bitcoin payments for its products.
A Slowdown of Enthusiasm
The unbridled electric energy in the air surrounding Bitcoin briefly halted after major cryptocurrencies plunged over 20% shortly following Elon Musk’s announcement that Tesla would no longer accept BTC.
Square’s massive Bitcoin position – 8,027 bitcoins – took a temporary dive, especially in light of the company’s most recent purchase ($170m with a cost basis of over $51,200). Square is still up about $200m with BTC overall (their initial purchase was at a lower price). Still, this recent dip has likely provoked upper management into slowing the pace of their diversification into riskier

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Polkadot Adds Parachain Auctions and Crowdloans to Kusama and Westend

May 14, 2021

The Polkadot network is on the verge of making some major updates. Yesterday, Parachain auctions and crowdloans were added to Kusama and Westend.
Polkadot’s Role in the Blockchain Ecosystem
While other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana are marching ahead, Polkadot has promised to provide serious improvements to existing solutions’ scalability and connectivity.
Notably, Polkadot offers cross-blockchain transfers, scalable node structures, and the ability to upgrade the network without carrying out a hard fork. While the network remains somewhat nebulous, it is slowly but surely coming to fruition – the question is whether or not it can catch up with other blockchains in terms of adoption and stored value.
Big Changes: Polkadot’s Use Cases Evolve
Now that auctions and

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Dogecoin Holders Should Convert Their DOGE to BTC, Says Barry Silbert

May 8, 2021

Barry Silbert, the founder of several major cryptocurrency ventures, most notably Grayscale, has announced his big bet against Dogecoin, which was made via the DOGEBEAR2021 token offered by FTX. On top of that, Silbert suggests DOGE holders to sell their coins for Bitcoin.
Dogecoin’s Turbulent Rise
DOGE has enjoyed a tumultuous rise over the past few weeks, skyrocketing to new highs on the back of renewed interest from both Elon Musk and the general investor crowd.
While many enthusiastic Dogecoin investors have assured themselves that the volatile currency is on the road to $2, several thought leaders in the cryptocurrency space view this rise as a mania-fuelled bubble destined to pop. Several big names in the space agree with Silbert in that newbies making quick gains

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Exploit in Larva Labs Meebits NFT Makes Rare Mints Printable at Will

May 8, 2021

Although the Meebits provenance was supposed to be completely random, the revelation of this new exploit allows users to generate NFTs worth hundreds of thousands of dollars for free (except ETH gas). This exploit is still live.
Larva Labs: A Mainstay of the NFT World
Famous for CryptoPunks, Larva Labs have cemented their legacy as pioneers in the NFT space, creating generative art on Ethereum. CryptoPunks have sold for outrageous amounts – sales have exceeded the million-dollar mark per NFT, with the most expensive one being sold for $7.57M back in March of this year.
Their latest offering, Meebits, is a 3D NFT project, and the public sale (where Meebits were priced at 2.5 ETH) raised over $85M. The average sale price on OpenSea for Meebits is over 5 ETH, with several

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VanEck Files For an Ethereum ETF With The SEC

May 7, 2021

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum, has recently crossed the $3,000 mark for the first time in history.
Earlier on Friday, VanEck has filed for an Ethereum ETF with the SEC. VanEck has already submitted a Bitcoin ETF, which is pending review – this is their first Ethereum ETF application. If successful, it will become the first Ethereum ETF to be available on US stock markets.
Ethereum’s Growing Momentum
Ethereum (ETH) has been hitting new highs on several metrics recently. Several outspoken leaders in the crypto space like Mark Cuban have expressed their belief that ETH will surpass BTC’s market cap in the long run.
As of now, despite having the highest hash rate and market capitalization, Bitcoin falls short when it comes to use-cases. It’s

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The Crypto Investor Who Went from $185K to $0 in 3 Weeks: What Can Be Learned?

May 2, 2021

As the bull market rages on, it’s easy to get caught up in success stories. However, it’s paramount to know that it’s not all rainbow and butterflies – losses happen, and they hurt, especially if you’re not prepared or overtrade.
An investor tweeted about how he lost his entire $185k portfolio in just 3 weeks. This is verifiable via his Ethereum address. The thread is sobering, and it’s a great read for traders to go through to remember that bull markets don’t last forever, and it’s important not to get wrapped up in exuberance.
How Did it Happen?
On April 11, according to the investor, ‘alt season was in full swing,’ and he was invested in solid projects with relatively low volatility. However, he got impatient and started overtrading on Uniswap in order to make quicker

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Charlie Munger Hates the Bitcoin Success as Warren Buffett Laments Neo-Trading Platforms

May 2, 2021

Legendary stock market investors Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger spoke at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, talking briefly about cryptocurrencies and the effects of the new trading era on the global psyche.
Buffett’s Thoughts and Munger’s Rant
Warren Buffett expressed his displeasure at people who treated markets like a casino, claiming that it encouraged a gambling impulse. Buffett insisted that sound long-term investing is not as easy as it sounds, and he spoke out against platforms that allowed people to make commission-free trades, as they exacerbated what he views as latent gambling addictions.
Munger has always been anti-Bitcoin, and he elaborated on some of those views at the meeting. Saying he ‘hates the Bitcoin success,’ Munger went on to call the ‘whole damn

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