More Pain For BTC Incoming? Miners Haven’t Capitulated Yet

by
Martin Young
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There has been increased speculation over a Bitcoin miner capitulation as hash rate increases slow down, operational costs increase, and the asset price continues to fall.

Analyst James Check assessed miner-side sell pressure to determine the severity of the miner selloff in a video on June 21.

Miners selling after a halving event and the slashing of their block subsidy is quite normal, he said.

I’ve seen a few folks speculating as to whether #Bitcoin miners are capitulating and ssuppressing the price.

So I ran the numbers, and analysed both current, and ancient miner sell side pressure.

Now live for @_checkonchain subscribers.https://t.co/BqEd6tkokG

— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 21, 2024

Bitcoin Miners Selling

Check analyzed the Puell multiple, which is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value, to determine that miners may not be at an “extreme level of stress, but they’re not having a great time either.”

If the market declines further from here they would probably enter capitulation, he said before adding, right now they are just “teetering on the edge.”

He also identified a “hash ribbon inversion,” which happens when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses below the 60-day moving average, signaling a period of difficulty when weaker miners have to turn off non-profitable rigs.

Moreover, the overall hash rate decline has been just 4%, which isn’t enormous and is smaller than during previous periods of miner stress.

“Miners are likely to be distributing some of their treasury, but it may not be a complete and total fire sale, meaning that they might be just treading water.”

“This doesn’t feel like a real painful bear market capitulation,” he concluded.

In a post on X on June 21, fellow analyst Willy Woo commented that bitcoin will recover when “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.”

“This one is for the record books as it’s taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving,” he added before stating that ordinal inscriptions were probably boosting profits.

I’ll break it down in simple terms.

When does #Bitcoin recover? It’s when weak miners die and hash rate recovers.

This one is for the record books as it’s taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving.

Probably can thank ordinal inscriptions boosting profits. pic.twitter.com/19MB0b8mHO

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 20, 2024

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin fell to a five-week low of $63,550 on June 21 but had recovered to reclaim $64,000 during Asian trading on Saturday.

Analyst “Don Alt” said that markets were at a “do-or-die” level on the weekly timeframe before reiterating his stance: “I really don’t like the $60k range low for another test.”

If this level is broken, BTC could fall to the next support level, which is $52,000, he said. This would push miners into capitulation, inducing further selling pressure.

$BTC

At a do-or-die weekly level here
As I stated before I really don’t like the $60k range low for another test
This one is better, untested support

If it breaks I think we’ll go to the next support indicated, if it holds new ATHs are likely pic.twitter.com/ROZ1oQZ001

— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) June 21, 2024