Tag Archives: BTC Analysis

December was a tough month for the price of BTC, recording a monthly low on December 4 just below $42K, according to Bitstamp. A little more than one day remains for this year, and it seems that BTC will end 2021 beneath the $50K price mark. Options Market Analysis An important factor that should be considered in options market analysis, especially in noteworthy expiries, is the Max Pain Price. Max pain price is the strike price that brings maximum loss to option buyers....

After the price topped at $52K on Monday, Bitcoin had lost over $4000 in just a day. Is BTC entering a deeper correction, or where is the local bottom? Technical Analysis Short-Term Analysis Last week the bitcoin price broke above a mid-term descending trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. After completing a pullback, the price increased again and touched $52k resistance (Monday). However, the market did not have enough momentum to continue the rally (low volume), and the bears...

Amid the last days of 2021, Bitcoin is struggling around the $50K price area. The primary cryptocurrency is facing a huge options expiration event on the last day of 2021; hence, the next days are expected to be volatile. Option Market Analysis This Friday, 31st December, about $5.7 B worth of bitcoin’ options contracts will expire on Deribit Exchange. The notional value of all expirations is approximately $10.7B. So comparing to 31 DEC‘s notional value, we can call it a...

The bitcoin price had recently reclaimed the $50K mark, topping a 16-day high. Reviewing the last year’s significant corrections, we can find an interesting pattern in the daily time frame; Breaking above the 20-day MA line and closing a candlestick above has frequently led to an upward trend. This pattern has been repeated six times but failed twice. The first failure was due to the fact that the market was already overheated. The second failed incident was due to FUDs...

This Friday, 24 of December 21, about $684 million worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire in Deribit Exchange. The maximum pain price – the strike price that brings maximum loss to option buyers – is $48k. The put/call ratio (PCR) is 0.67. Calls for a $64k strike price have the highest open interest. The last two weeks’ Buy/Sell volume shows that the call seller for the $52k strike still looks at this strike as a resistance for this expiry. Ichimoku cloud could...

Bitcoin volatility continues. After dipping below $46K on Monday, BTC was able to recover sharply, marking Tuesday’s high above $49.3K as of writing these lines. Looking at the following chart, the middle line in the Bollinger Band might act as a support level for the ascending trends, and at the same time, it acts also as a resistance for the descending trends. After the bearish divergence was confirmed – as shown in the chart below – bitcoin’s price dropped from its ATH...

All markets are having a hard time during Monday’s trading session and Bitcoin is no exception. The cryptocurrency is down just shy of 2 percent in the past 24 hours while altcoins are mostly in red. Option Market Analysis The rising cases of the highly transmissible Omicron caused fear in all markets. Investors are worried about lockdowns which may have negative effects on the economy. In the options market, Short-dated implied volatility also increased accordingly to fear....

According to Reuters, the Russian central bank wants to ban investments in cryptocurrencies in the country. Following the bearish news, Bitcoin’s price fell to near $48.5k in the spot market. In the options market the last 48 hours, many options traders sold Calls and bought Puts to hedge for the near-term expiries. Multi expiry skew shows that traders seek downside protection. It seems that they are not optimistic about the rally in 2021: Technical Analysis On a daily...

Long-term Technical Analysis: The Monthly Based on the monthly timeframe, the market is not showing any strength yet. Let’s examine the market structure using the trend lines and indicators shown in the following chart. If we compare the current cycle (2021) with the previous one (2017), the RSI indicator is still on its uptrend with a lower slope (marked by green – dynamic line). During the 2017 bull run, the failure of this line signaled the end of the bull run (the red...

Options Market Analysis Bitcoin price is now sub $49,000, about 27% below the ATH ($69k). Options traders set different hedging strategies during the previous weeks to protect against the market downside. Next Friday, December 17th, about $630 million worth of bitcoin options contracts will expire in Deribit. The max pain scenario for this expiry is if the price is at $50K. Calls at 60k strike price have the highest open interest with 1005 contracts. Options traders have sold...