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Articles by Daniel Joe

Bitcoin Price Analysis: First Bullish Signs Following the Weekly Close

November 29, 2021

After a wild week of volatile price swings, BTC managed to hold the key support at $57.1K, closing the weekly candle at $57.3K. Bulls pushed the price higher, heading into the weekly close, and manage to liquidate a lot of short positions.
For the near term, it’s still too early to confirm a bottom as we have to see how stocks trade this week.
Chart by TradingViewThe Technicals
Long-term technicals remain bullish as BTC continues to make higher highs and higher lows. For the near term, the cryptocurrency needs to hold the recent lows at $53.3K and start making higher highs and higher lows to help confirm a bottom.
It’s important to note that Bitcoin hasn’t tested the September highs at $53K. If stocks struggle to recover this week and we see more uncertainty on the new

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: After Friday’s Bloodbath, is the Selloff Over?

November 27, 2021

Just as Bitcoin started showing early positive developments of recovery, fear of a new variant of COVID-19 sent global stocks sharply lower, causing the crypto market to decline.
Although the near-term price action looks bearish, the overall trend in fundamental and on-chain continues to remain strong, suggesting the bull market is likely to continue. Bitcoin has tested a critical uptrend support line around $54K, entering a very crucial technical zone of support.
Chart by TradingViewThe Technicals
Near-term technicals remain cautious, especially with the pullback in stocks. It’s possible the stock market to be entering a short-term phase of correction, which is also likely to impact BTC. The major support is currently between $53K to $50K – a critical zone the bulls need

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Was $55K The Local Bottom?

November 25, 2021

The technical indicators are showing potential signs of a bottom at $55.4K. Bitcoin’s price has built a base of support in the mid $50K area recently, with bullish divergence forming on the 4-hour RSI.
It appears that bulls have stepped in and protected $56.2K, which is a technical level of support. The overall trend in on-chain metrics continues to remain bullish despite the recent volatility.
The Technicals
The longer-term trend and structure remain bullish despite the recent drawdown. BTC has been making higher highs and higher lows since the mid-cycle pullback bottom in July.
In case of another liquidation, it’s important to look for the critical technical uptrend support at around $53.2K. This is a key level the bulls must protect in addition to the confluent support

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: If Short-Term Bearishness Continues, This is the Level to Watch

November 19, 2021

Bitcoin’s price dipped to an intraday low of $55,640 (on Bitstamp) and is currently down around 3.5% on the day and 11.8% on the week.
The entire market seems to be struggling, with an exception of cryptocurrencies associated with Play-to-Earn games and metaverse-related projects. Bitcoin managed to recover to about $57K, where it’s currently trading as the market is looking for the next direction.
Chart by TradingViewThe overall trend in fundamentals and on-chain remains firmly bullish despite this drawdown. Presently, the pressure seems to be coming from younger coins panic-selling at a loss and from liquidations of overleveraged long positions.
The near-term technicals signal for caution as there’s short-term bearish momentum in the market, and we need to wait for signs

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Critical Moment for BTC Amid Today’s Weekly Close

November 14, 2021

Since the major drop on Wednesday, the bitcoin price mostly traded around the same range of $64K. Today is the last day of the week; this means that on midnight UTC will see a weekly candle close. This candle close is critical for the next short-term.
The bulls need to see BTC makes a weekly close above $64.8k for the first step in breakout confirmation. As shown on the following chart, the bullish Cup and Handle pattern breakout was completed, with a back-test of previous resistance support at $64.8k.
In case of a bullish weekly close above $64.8K, it might turn into a very bullish signal and increase the probability of a rally towards $70k to $80k in the near term.
Despite the above, short-term holders will need to be mindful of the upcoming Mt. Gox Distribution.

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Bitcoin’s Pullback: Bullish Backtest or a Reason to Worry? (BTC Price Analysis)

November 11, 2021

Bitcoin’s price went through a near-term pullback that was largely driven by leverage long liquidations. It sent the open interest down $1.5 billion.
There are no signs of aggressive distribution from long-term holders (LTHs) aside from very light selling from the 7-to-10-year cohort. Older coins didn’t send through this pullback.
The cup and handle pattern looks complete with a backtest of the previous resistance at $64.8K, which is now turned into support.
Chart by TradingViewThe Technicals
This short-term pullback isn’t concerning. In fact, it’s healthy for the market structure. It’s important to see BTC’s price holding $64.8K during the backtest of support. Still, it’s possible for more liquidations to take place, and we should look for support at $62.4k, $61.8K,

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: This is The Next Target if BTC Breaks $67K ATH

November 8, 2021

Bitcoin is up 7.6% in the past seven days, but it charted 6% gains in the past 24 hours alone in a very formidable push. However, it’s worth noting that we need to see a daily close above $64.8K, as well as a potential confirmation on the weekly chart to have more confidence in the current rally.
Chart by TradingViewThe Technicals
Bitcoin is currently pushing above the important resistance level at $64.8K on the intraday, and it’s looking to complete the cup and handle pattern that we have been tracking for the past couple of weeks.
The BTC price managed to set a few 4-hour closes above $64.8K, which is definitely a positive signal, but we do need to see the daily close above it so that the level can be turned into support. An even stronger buy signal would flash if the

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Stuck Below an Important Resistance, Breakout Attempt Incoming?

November 7, 2021

In the past few days, we saw Bitcoin’s price nearly touching $60K again and it’s now important to reclaim the 21-ay MA in the near term. Meanwhile, the strong resistance continues to lie between $63.7K and $64.8K.
The ideal scenario for BTC bulls would be to complete the cup and handle breakout above $63.7K and $64.8K, which should send the price to the range between $70K and $80K.
There are still no signs of a distribution trend forming but we did see some light profit-taking on behalf of older coins. The miners continue to hold and there were no major spikes in CDD or SOPR, which signals that there’s not a lot of profit-taking happening.
Chart by TradingViewAs we mentioned in the previous BTC analysis the price action and on-chain performance do resemble these from late

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Touched 11-Day High at $64K, Now Facing Critical Resistance

November 2, 2021

Bitcoin continues to hold the 21-day, 21-day EMA, and $60K levels which is a near-term positive signal. There has been some profit-taking from the 2-to-3-year and 5-year old coins, but there’s no trend of distribution forming just yet.
Overall, the trend in fundamentals and based on on-chain metrics remains bullish, but we have to remain cautious as the Fed will be making an update on tapering bond purchases.
Chart by TradingViewThe Technicals
The near-term technicals are slowly improving as $60K continues to hold with a push above the 21-day and the 21-day EMA. We still need to see a push above $63.7K to form a higher high.
We also need to see the weekly close above $64.8K to help drive a larger breakout to new all-time highs. It’s important to watch for the Fed

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BTC Eyes Critical October Monthly Close Amid Short-term Pullback (Bitcoin Price Analysis)

October 31, 2021

October has so far been a solid month for BTC, currently higher by 40% for the month, after the September shake out.
The overall trend in fundamentals and on-chain remain firmly bullish, as long-term holders and miners continue to show no signs of aggressive distribution. The conditions continue to look very similar to BTC’s situation in November 2020, right before a new all-time high was achieved.
However, we must remain cautious in the near term as spot inflows have been slowly trending higher, and the estimated leverage ratio is still elevated at .19.
The Technicals
TL;DR – if BTC struggles to hold the 21-day MA, 21 day EMA, and $60K over the short term, it could trigger further downside to the support zone between $58.3k to $53k.
BTC/USD, Oct-31The Bitcoin price

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: After Finding Support at $60K, Is BTC Ready for a Breakout?

October 26, 2021

The near-term pullback managed to find support at $59.5K and successfully held $60K on a daily closing basis. The significant rally with elevated open interest, high funding rates, and leverage ratios were all signals of caution.
The open interest has been consolidating around $14.3 billion, and the funding rate also cooled down to neutral levels. The leverage ratio remains elevated, and it hit a recent high of .19 which is near the November 2020 peak.
Chart by TradingViewTechnical Indicators of BTC Price
It’s very good to see that the $60K level held with a push higher. In the short term, bitcoin’s price is making higher highs on the hourly chart, but we do need to see BTC make a higher low while also holding $60K.
There was an early bullish divergence that was forming

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Following New ATH and Quick Retracement, What’s Next for BTC?

October 24, 2021

Bitcoin’s price finally entered a correction to flush out the leverage, cool off the overbought conditions, and help build a structure after the large rally in the past three weeks. This happened after the open interest, funding rates, and leverage ratio all reached elevated levels.
The near-term support at $60K appears to be holding, which is a positive signal. Given the current selling pressure, it’s unlikely that the weekly close will be above $64.8K.
Chart by TradingViewNear-Term Technical Indicators for BTC Price
The cryptocurrency needs to continue holding $60K on a closing basis. The ideal scenario would be to hold $60K, form a cup and handle, retest $64.8K, and break out higher towards $70K to $80K.
If we see a closing below $60K, that would be a near-term bearish

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Caution – Is the BTC Breakout to All Time Highs Confirmed?

October 21, 2021

Bitcoin managed to complete a daily close above the previous all-time high at $64.8K at $66K. This is an early bullish signal, but it’s not enough to fully confirm the breakout.
For this to happen, we need to see multiple daily closes, as well as weekly ones above $64.8K. This would provide confirmation and further validation. In the near term, we can expect to see multiple retests of $64.8K as a support level.
Chart by TradingViewNear-Term Caution for the BTC Price
Even though the price closed above the previous all-time high, as mentioned above – it might be too early to celebrate. The open interest has been soaring lately, while the funding rates shot up considerably as well on Binance. The estimated leverage ratio is back to the highs of April and September at 0.18.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: What to Expect Following a New ATH for BTC?

October 20, 2021

Bitcoin’s price continues to show strength, and it’s trading very close to the all-time highs, with an intraday high at around $64,600 (on Bitstamp) at the time of this writing.
The spot volume has been increasing for days, which is a sign of strength. The BTC price action has been impressive on the day the futures-backed BTC ETF started trading. However, it’s important to remain cautious in the near term as the open interest continues to increase – currently sitting at $14.4 billion. The estimated leverage ratio also remains elevated, although the funding rates have gone down to neutral.
Chart by TradingViewTechnical Indicators of the Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin accelerated to the upside as soon as the price closed above the range between $57,100 and $58,300, which was

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC Set for New ATH Following the Highest-Ever Weekly Close?

October 18, 2021

For the first time in history, we saw Bitcoin closing a weekly candle above $60K. This happened on the back of reports that the first futures-backed BTC ETF would be officially listed, pending no further interference by the SEC.
It’s also important to note that the open interest, the funding rates, as well as the estimated leverage ratio all went up in the interim. This signals that it’s necessary to be cautious, especially given the possibility for the Bitcoin ETF announcement to turn into a “sell-the-news” event.
Chart by TradingViewNear-Term Caution for the Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin rallied upwards of 100% from the lows below $30K a couple of months back – this is a relatively short period of time and a considerable increase. This also increases the leverage and presents a

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After Breaking $60k, Is Bitcoin Set for Correction Before New ATH? BTC Price Analysis

October 16, 2021

BTC has been showing strength lately, driven by anticipation of the futures-backed ETF and potential launch early next week. It closed at $61.6k with more than double the daily average volume on Coinbase, showing strong spot buying.
Possible Correction for BTC?
Although near-term price action has been very bullish with a strong breakout above $52.9k in the last 2 weeks, we need to approach the BTC ETF launch with caution. The risk of a near-term pullback is increasing because BTC has rallied 58% in just a few weeks in anticipation of the BTC ETF news.
Chart by TradingViewIn traditional markets, stocks tend to sell off leading up to or on the day of the anticipated announcement as traders take profit. Bitcoin is not immune to the “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern as we

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Enters Near-Term Pullback, Is Local Bottom Found?

October 13, 2021

BTC’s recent 46% rally from the lows at $39.6k has been very impressive as prices pushed above $50k, the September high at $52.9k, with higher highs being made.
The above further validates the completion of the bear trap down to $39.6k. Bitcoin has been finding initial resistance as anticipated in the $57.1k to $58.3k, a major zone of technical and on-chain resistance.
Chart by TradingViewThe $50k to $58.3k zone includes many buyers from earlier this year who acquired Bitcoin during the large run-up to $64.8k. Although many of these buyers panic-sold the lows at $30k, there are likely remaining holders looking to break even or realize a small profit at current levels, which indicates potential near-term selling pressure.
Near-Term Cautious – Overall Trend Remains Bullish

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Following Bitcoin’s Bullish Weekly Close, These Are the Next Possible Targets (BTC Price Analysis)

October 11, 2021

BTC managed to make a strong weekly close above $52.9k, the highs from September, further validating the bear trap to $39.6k. After holding the higher low at $40.7k, a level we have been watching closely, BTC successfully followed through higher by printing a second weekly candle higher.
This validates the previous week’s bullish engulfing candle, adding strength to near-term technical momentum and structure. Although last week’s technical conditions were slightly overbought, BTC managed to follow the ideal scenario by consolidating sideways while holding the $55k level as support.

Chart by TradingViewChart by TradingViewIt is important for BTC to continue holding above $52.9k this week and follow-through higher. It is now heading deeper into the major resistance zone

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Heading for a Critical Weekly Close, Will $52.9k Hold?

October 9, 2021

BTC had an impressive run this week, managing to push above a key downtrend line and the September high at $52.9k. It managed to hit an intraweek high of $56.1k, digging deeper into the $55k to $58k zone of technical and on-chain resistance.
The rally so far has shown profit-taking from much younger coins, while the older cohorts continue to steadily hold. Although many weak hands who bought BTC above $50k earlier this year panic sold during the May liquidation wipe out, we can expect some remaining investors looking to break even add near term selling pressure, especially between $55k to $58k.
Chart by TradingViewGiven the technical and heavy on-chain realized price distribution in the $55k to $58k zone, it could take BTC multiple attempts to push above these levels,

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Spikes to 5-Month High, What Are The Next Levels to Watch?

October 6, 2021

October has been exciting for the bulls as BTC continues to push above multiple major resistance levels. The first week of the month isn’t even complete, and BTC has already reached an intra-week high of $55.4K, just entering into the critical $55k to $58k zone of resistance. Since the higher low at $40.7k, Bitcoin managed to rally over 36% to today’s intraday highs.
During the weeks of risk-off, Bitcoin managed to hold the deepest higher low at $40.7k, which we covered and started to form sub Wave 3 to the upside.
BTC continued to outperform stocks even with risk-off, managing to reclaim key resistance levels and print higher highs. It also managed to push above a major downtrend line around $50.8k, with a successful backtest of support before soaring up to $55.4K.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Reclaims Critical Level Following a Strong Weekly Close, Here Are Next Targets

October 4, 2021

September was a volatile month full of liquidation events, FUD, global risk-off, uncertainty over monetary policy, and a rising dollar. Yet, Bitcoin managed to hold the larger technical structure at $40k while maintaining the bullish trend in on-chain metrics.
BTC has shown tremendous strength in the past week by closing back above the rising trend line at $44k, reclaiming $45.2k, the critical 200-day moving average, and printing a bullish engulfing candle. Bitcoin also managed to push back into the green zone between $47.2k to $50.5k, an area which was previous support.
Chart by TradingViewNear-term, it is important for BTC to establish support at $47.2k to $47k, as this level has a large amount of supply according to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric. When the

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Soars Above Short-term Key Resistance, $50k Incoming?

October 1, 2021

Bitcoin has been outperforming global stocks even in a risk-off environment as investors have been waiting to see if support at $40k would hold. Today’s strong rally could be the beginning of the next leg up for the primary cryptocurrency after a month-long shake out full of liquidations and FUD, mainly from China.
As we reported this week, the 4-hour chart began to show flattening of near-term moving averages, a sign of consolidation making progress, potentially setting up for a breakout attempt.
BTC continued to make higher lows and began to test the rising trend line at $44k. Within hours, BTC pushed higher testing the next key resistance levels at $44.3k and $45.1k.
Chart by TradingViewBTC soared as shorts were squeezed out of their positions, as an incredible 539 BTC

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Retests Key Support for the 3rd Time – Bottom In?

September 29, 2021

BTC continues to consolidate with multiple retests of the critical $40.7k higher low. Recent global risk-off added some selling pressure to BTC, but so far, it appears $40.7k is holding support with a solid push higher, reaching $42.3k at the time of writing.
BTC continues to hold a larger technical structure as $40k has been established as significant support. Even with negative news, macro risk-off, and a rising dollar, Bitcoin has been showing resilience by holding $40.7k multiple times in the past week.
Chart by TradingView$40.7k is a very important level to hold, as it is the deepest higher low BTC can make to complete the Wave 2 corrective wave. Falling below $40.7k will increase the probability of retesting $40k or potentially wicking down to $37.3k to $39.3k due to

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: China FUD Caused Heavy Liquidations, Is the Bottom In?

September 25, 2021

Just as Bitcoin rallied slightly above $45k on Friday, recycled news on China’s central bank vowing to ban crypto trading for Chinese citizens came out, liquidating more than $600 million of derivative positions at the time of writing.
It is crucial to remember that large liquidations tend to cause cascades of forced sell orders, creating a near-term imbalance between supply and demand. In these events, supply overwhelms demand, and prices drop until the next large bid (supply) is hit.
Chart by TradingViewDespite the near-term volatility, the overall trend in fundamentals and on-chain metrics remains firmly bullish as long-term holders and miners continue to hold. In contrast, the weak hands combined with ‘young’ held coins continue to panic sell. Exactly as happened in

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: After BTC’s Quick Dip Below $40k, Is Local Bottom Confirmed?

September 22, 2021

Global risk-off, uncertainty over Evergrande’s debt crisis, and large liquidations have been pressuring Bitcoin lately. The near-term chart may look bearish, but the fundamental and on-chain trend remain firmly bullish, making this pullback a potential buying opportunity.
In just over two weeks, BTC fell from a high of $52.9k to a low of $39.5k, mainly driven by massive liquidations in derivatives and panic selling from younger coins. It’s easy to look at the chart with a bearish bias considering the deep retracement and fear in the market. Still, the trend in fundamentals and on-chain metrics shows the underlying strength in the holders of Bitcoin.
Chart by TradingViewAs we covered in August, September has historically been a volatile period for risk assets. The recent

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Bitcoin Plunges on Global Stocks Crash, Where is The Next Critical Support? (BTC Price Analysis)

September 20, 2021

After a week of global stocks selling off and BTC managing to hold quite well, the pressure continues as SPX futures dropped sharply as fear and uncertainty regarding Evergrande’s $300B debt crisis remain.
Investors need to be cautious as the SPX has broken a higher time frame structure, likely leading to increased volatility in the coming weeks. This will likely impact volatility in BTC as risk assets are highly correlated.
Chart by TradingViewTechnical Support Tested – Key Levels to Hold
The near-term selling pressure has pushed Bitcoin below the critical 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. BTC needs to hold the 200-day MA for the weekly close to maintain the longer-term bullish technical structure and the bull market validation phase.
There are highly

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Approaching $50K With a Solid Weekend Rally

September 18, 2021

BTC has been showing near-term signs of strength, especially after reclaiming the 200-moving average on the 4-hour chart and holding $47.2k, a key level of support.
What’s notable is that Bitcoin managed to hold support despite global stocks selling off with the dollar rising. Near term, BTC has managed to reclaim the critical 200-day moving average, 21-day, the 21-day exponential moving average, and the 200-moving average on the 4-hour chart. This is quite impressive considering that global stocks have been selling off.
Chart by TradingViewStrong Hands not Selling
The near-term positivity is likely from continuing strength in on-chain metrics particularly with strong hands holding large amounts of older coins while younger coins sell. The market is back in profit

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Continues Consolidation, Here are the Key Levels to Watch

September 10, 2021

Once again, BTC held support at the critical 200-day moving average of around $46k after shaking another round of weak hands. Although the near term charts look bearish, the overall trend in fundamental, technical, and on-chain data remain firmly bullish, indicating Bitcoin will likely head higher in the next few months.
Chart by TradingViewBTC Falls While Strong Hands Continue to Buy
Spot exchange reserves printed another multi-year low, further indicating strong accumulation, especially with long-term holders and entities with a low history of selling. Total spot exchange net flows came in at nearly -3000 BTC with total spot inflows of 9,858 BTC and total spot inflows of 12,788 BTC.
Looking at BTC miners, on-chain metrics show a return to accumulation after minimal

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Holds 200-Day MA, is the Selling Complete?

September 9, 2021

After the nearly 20% plunge in BTC price, the cryptocurrency spent the next day consolidating and retesting the critical 200-day moving average at $46k.
BTC managed to hold the level for the daily close, a positive signal. Near term, it is important to continue holding $46k, complete long liquidations, and start a recovery to reclaim $47.2, the bottom of the green zone.
Strong Hands Holding Older Coins Did Not Sell
Although BTC fell slightly the day after the major drop, on-chain data continues to firmly show long-term holders, and entities holding older coins continue to accumulate, showing no signs of whale exit liquidity.
Chart by CryptoQuantYet again, the 3 to 6-month-old cohorts panic sold the dip. Keep in mind, this group accumulated BTC between $50k to $64.8k. It’s

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: What Drove the 19% Crash and is the Pain Over?

September 8, 2021

$4 billion in liquidations wiped out the derivatives market, sending BTC lower by 19% at the intraday lows yesterday. Crypto Twitter went into panic, as exchanges were unresponsive, investors struggled to fill orders, and fears of a bear market began to spread.
Days like yesterday make it easy to panic sell without thinking about what was actually happening. Although the charts looked horrible, on-chain data was flashing completely different signals, showing that long-term holders and large cohorts were not selling this pullback.
Chart by TradingVewFor the last few weeks, futures open interest have been soaring, increasing from $9 billion to a peak of $12.8 billion. Within hours after BTC crashed, open interest dropped from $12.8 billion back to $9 billion and has been

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